Those of us working in prime central London have been watching a pattern develop quietly for some time. Wealthy families and investors from across the Middle East are stepping up their search for property in Europe’s prime markets — and London is at the top of that list.
London has always been the city that the world turns to when it wants stability. Not because it is the cheapest option, or the sunniest, or the most straightforward to navigate. But because it is London: a city with a rule of law, a depth of culture, an international community and a property market that has absorbed every geopolitical shock of the last century and come out the other side. That reputation does not happen by accident and it does not disappear quickly.
What is different about the current moment is the speed. Demand that might previously have built gradually over months is arriving with more urgency. Families who had been considering a London base for years are now moving from consideration to action. The enquiries we are receiving, across short lets, long lets and sales, have increased noticeably in recent weeks, and the conversations we are having are different in character to those of twelve months ago.
Across OB, the numbers tell the same story. Between January and March this year we conducted 794 viewings, received 72 offers and agreed 25 sales – alongside 118 valuations and 136 new properties coming to market in a single quarter.
In Mayfair and St James’s, achieved prices are up 3.6% year on year. Buyers are paying an average of £2,499 – up 4.7% – per square foot and 13.3% of properties are selling within three months, compared with 9.1% across the rest of central London. What that tells you is that serious buyers in this market are moving quickly when they find the right property. Buyers and sellers are also closer in their expectations than they have been for some time with OB’s own average discount from guide price running at just 5%, which in the context of prime central London is a market that has found its level.
Prime central London, and Mayfair in particular, absorbs this kind of demand in a way that other markets cannot. The supply of genuinely good property in W1 is structurally limited. It does not expand to meet demand. Which means that when a new wave of serious buyers arrives, it does not take long for the best addresses to become very difficult to find.
For anyone with a connection to the region who is considering a London base, now is the moment to be having that conversation rather than waiting to see how things develop. The buyers who move early in these cycles rarely regret it. The ones who wait and see usually do.
